The key market trends affecting the real estate market are changes in:
- Advertising, marketing, and the media’s assault on the consumer has lead to
a change in consumer’s expectations and tolerance levels. Real estate media
exposure led to increased consumer activity.
- The amount of knowledge required for an agent to be perceived as an expert on all areas of real estate, and the diversity in the market, has lead to specialization.
- The need for Realtors® to identify a specific target market otherwise their
marketing will not be effective and they will waste a lot of money.
- Developing teams that lead to high productivity.
- Demographics and Geographics – A new generation comes into home
buying age, and the baby boomers choose to move into warmer territory.
- Technology and the internet could change the entire industry.
- A shift in the market from buyers and sellers, dilution of market by too many agents, higher interest rates result in more foreclosures, and the higher cost of housing resulting in higher debt level and affordability issues.
We’ll look at each of these areas individually.
Trend #1 – Advertising, marketing, and the media’s assault on the consumer has lead to a change in consumer’s expectations and tolerance levels. Real estate media exposure led to increased consumer activity.
Tivo, Moxi, DVRs, “Do Not Call” lists, iPods, and spam filters are sending a message to the advertisers that consumers want the option of not hearing from them, and they are becoming more discriminate about what they listen to and watch. The consumer feels barraged with people trying to get their attention. With fraud expanding, people are starting to get leery. There is little tolerance for uninvited advertising. Consumers are looking for ways to eliminate you and figure out how to get the information they want, without having to talk to an agent until they absolutely have to.
All marketers are being required to understand their potential clients better, and figure out a way to touch them the way they want to be touched. Otherwise, they will just turn you off and tune you out. Too many agent’s marketing is all about the agent and does not engage action or participation on the part of the consumer.
N.A.R. states that 50% of all listings failed to meet the consumer’s expectations. With 77% of consumers on-line, they have a lot more knowledge and therefore are expecting more from agents. Consumers want to be kept informed. Most agents only call when the client calls them. That is not outstanding customer service. The consumer is wondering why agents are getting such a high fee. Just because houses appreciated 50% does that mean they’re getting 50%
better or more service? Rarely.
With the insurgence of real estate investment “get rich now” television programming
along with the different fix-r-upper, flip-this-house programs, the consumer is exposed to new areas of real estate; new possibilities they hadn’t considered before. They have become more knowledgeable and see it as a new opportunity to make money while still having their “day jobs”. There are still opportunities, but a cooling has occurred due to increased inventory and less appreciation. Many investors found themselves upside down in a saturated market. Some choose to bail out and take a loss, others are holding for the longer term based on the migration trends of the baby boomers. This situation caused more uncertainty in the market.
Trend #2 – The amount of knowledge required for an agent to be perceived as an expert on all areas of real estate has lead to specialization
Let’s face it, real estate has many different facets. I came up with 26 different areas you could choose to specialize in. I’m sure there are more. People think they can be all things to all people. That is impossible. We know this from our own personal experience and yet we can get ourselves into a situation of saying, “Sure I can handle that.” Well, if someone came in and said, “I want to do business with you, regardless or how knowledgeable you were, then you were lucky. Today’s consumer wants to know that the agent they are dealing with knows what they’re talking about. They like working with experts. The agents lack of knowledge will guarantee not getting the best deal for the client.
Also, to differentiate yourself in the market, specializing gives you that avenue. If you
said that you specialize in golf property, then if I was interested in golf properties I’d be talking to you and if I’m not, I wouldn’t. So many agents think this will limit their
market, yet in the long run it makes it simpler for the consumer to know what you do, what you’re an expert in, and that you understand their needs.
With the diversity of generational expectations, varied use of technology, consumer expectations, and cosmopolitan geographics, it has almost become a necessity to specialize in a very target market.
Trend #3 – The need for Realtors® to identify a specific target market otherwise their marketing will not be effective and they will waste a lot of money. It is combining both on and off-line marketing to fit the needs of your target market. You hit the mark in this area and you can gain significant market share.
This follows in the path of specialization. If you are specializing in a given area, you have chosen a target market. You may have to take that specialization and target it even further depending on what specialization you’ve chosen. For instance, if you had decided to specialize in an age range or generation, that would still be too big to fit a target market to be effective with your marketing.
If you have that “I can handle any real estate transaction” attitude, it probably carries over into your marketing. If you live in a town of 50,000 people, and think you can market to all of those people, it is a foolish and expensive assumption.
We are in a transition period that requires both on-line and off-line advertising. Unless, you have decided your target market are people who exclusively use either on-line or off-line for their buying decisions, there are not too many that fall into just one of those categories. This has made marketing, which most agents don’t do very well, even more complicated. Marketing is being re-defined, which is leading to some new innovative ways to reach the consumer.
Borrell Associates says that the amount of traditional and on-line advertising will cross in 2009. So the trend is apparent, but in the meantime, most consumers are using both models to make their buying decisions and therefore it requires you to reach them in both mediums.
Many agents continue to use a 1990′s model of marketing. This has caused their
marketing to become less and less effective. More time and money is being spent in on-line advertising – up to 52% of the marketing budget. Signs, riders, marketing tools like voice response systems and “talking house” technology are becoming more and more important as consumers are looking for ways to get information without having to actually talk to an agent.
2006 was the largest newspaper circulation drop in 15 years. The newspapers are hurting. Advertisers are moving with the trend. Carat USA estimates that expenditures on newspaper ads are about $600 per household versus $152 on internet advertising. Lead generating options have added even more cost to getting the sale. It only makes sense that companies will continue to make the push to on-line just from a cost perspective. However, consumers pay more attention to magazine ads than they do internet banner ads. The bottom line is how do I reach my target market? Where are they, what do they want, and how can I deliver it to them in the most cost effective manner.
In one year, the fixation for on-line video and social networking created the most changes and opened up more new opportunities to the marketing world than anything else since the birth of the internet. As broadband abilities continue to grow, so will on-line video, which will lead to more content-on-demand opportunities. Change is accelerating, and new innovations are changing traditional rules overnight.
One must adapt to the needs and wants of the specific target market that they like and want to do business with. Whether that is tech savvy vs. the traditional buyer, or baby boomers vs. Gen X or Y, you will need to use the tools, techniques and strategies for that target market.
Trend #4 – Developing teams that lead to high productivity
This used to be a business you could do all by yourself. With today’s demanding clients, and regulation, you need help. It has become very important to build an extended team of title, inspection, lenders, contracting professionals you trust and have a relationship with. There are many team models, but it is clear that if you want to have high production, you will need an assistant.
There are many new real estate business models available and agents are changing
companies faster than ever. Those models that incorporate a strong on-line presence, are consumer-driven, and offer a wide variety of services at a lower cost stand the best chance to corner a portion of the market. Existing brokers clinging to old business models will struggle in the future and find their market share eroding. Brokers are still searching for ways to keep their talent and improve their productivity.
Trend #5 – Demographics and Geographics—A new generation comes into home
buying age, the baby boomers choose to move into warmer territory, growth in
minority buyers.
Gen X’s (Echo Boomers) are 73 million strong, represent 23% of the labor force, are more than 50% larger than the Gen Y population, and appear to be more confident and optimistic. Their reality about technology is completely different than the baby boomers. They tend to have good business and organizational skills, are highly motivated to make a lot of money, tend to lack people skills, and have a lower tolerance to the older generation.
Gen Y’s are turning 30-40 and represent 30% of the work force. They grew up with the internet, it plays a part in their day-to-day life, and they expect newer approaches and processes that are integrated into that technology. They are buying younger, and want something different, just like every other generation. Marriage is not a requirement in home buying. In 2005, 40% of the buyers were first-time buyers, 50% of those were between 25 and 34. 38% of all homebuyers were below 35. Gen X and Y “want it now” more than any other generation. They are a lot more comfortable with change and will adapt to the newest, latest-greatest, “coolest” thing. If boomers don’t stay up, Gen Xs and Ys will pass them by.
There are 78 million baby boomers, and they represent 42% of all homeowners. They own 50% of the vacation homes and other investment property. 59% of younger boomers (41-49) and 50% of the older boomers (50-59) plan to purchase new homes for retirement. They want an active lifestyle, quality time with their loved ones, and a sense of community. They like to live within a three hour driving distance of their grandchildren (notice that’s not children). The most desired home features are internet, laundry room, and more than one bedroom. They want to live in warm weather which has them migrating to Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, California and Texas.
There is no doubt these generations will have an overall impact on the industry as a
whole. The more we know about our clients the more effective we will be in meeting
their needs, understanding them, and using our marketing dollars wisely.
Minorities are projected to be 71% of the household growth over the next decade.
According to Fannie Mae and HUD, minorities could account for up to 60% of all first-time home buyers over the next 5 to 10 years. These statistics can not nor should not be ignored. Accommodating the different challenges faced by minorities in regards to qualifying, mortgages, education, and language barriers will open up new opportunities to those willing to provide the help.
The US Census Bureau predicts that half (50%) of the population will be non-Caucasian by the year 2050. In certain areas of the country, a broker, title company or lender would be foolish not to have a Spanish speaking rep or agent. Non-English speaking internet users now outnumber English speaking ones. How are the agents or brokers websites reflecting this change?
The number of immigrants into the US has grown from 2.5 million in the 50′s to around 11 million in the last few years. Immigrants are big proponents of home ownership. Therefore, they would make a great target market.
Trend #6 – Technology and the internet could change the entire industry
Internet buyers vs. traditional buyers – 77% of buyers are using the internet. According to C.A.R they use the internet:
- 86% to find a specific agent
- 75% to identify a specific home they want their agent to show them
- 66% for financing information
- 62% neighborhood information
- 45% to find a real estate firm
- 70% expect 60 min. response time
- 21% want an instant response
- Twice as many prefer email to telephone
Google lists real estate as its top search category-2 billion searches a year. Web 2.0
technology is moving the internet from just information to include collaboration. The
internet is moving to a very interactive state. Static websites won’t do it for much longer. People want interactivity, and almost expect it.
Just a year ago some agents were still asking if they should have a website. Now it’s a question of how many? Consumers want content without being “sold”. Provide free
content of interest to them and they will love you.
Consumers are demanding more and more information. Will the MLS survive as it is
today? Will it become a national system? Only time will tell. To give the consumers what they want, they need access nationally. I have an issue with allows agents to sell
properties in areas they are not familiar. Challenges are in the wings. How long will it be before the consumer can list their home, do all their marketing on-line, and buyers are only looking on-line? I think it’s sooner than we would predict.
Mechanization and automation of the transaction process is a huge plus for the real estate industry.
New models, approaches, and methods are all being infused into an industry with a
history of disliking change. Each person will have to make a decision of what they want to embrace, how it will impact their business, and what benefits it will provide their clients.
Regardless of technology, response time is everything. If you don’t get back to them
quick, they’re gone. Responsiveness was the number one factor wanted by both buyers and sellers. They want to deal with an expert professional who takes care of the details, communicates on a regular basis, keeps them informed and is responsive to their needs. Technologies are making this possible through the use of email on cell phones/pda’s, and sending text mail.
Trend #7 – A shift in the market from buyers and sellers, dilution of market by too many agents, higher interest rates result in more foreclosures, and the higher cost of housing resulting in higher debt level and affordability issues.
The sellers have finally gotten the reality of what happens when the market is flooded
with homes and the buyers have the opportunity to be pickier. The buyers are settling down to realize that the “big deal” just isn’t out there. The real estate agent understands that the “fast money” isn’t there any more, yet, there were more Realtors® last year then ever.
Because most of the agents had no real, consistent marketing plans, many have found themselves with little business. With many agents only doing a few deals a year, they were not able or didn’t stay up on the latest market trends and were not providing their clients with the best service or knowledge. This has had an impact on the buyers and sellers looking for and demanding better service and greater levels of knowledge.
In areas where there is still a large influx of buyers and job growth, appreciation will still tend to go up, regardless of what happens to interest rates.
NAR published its report of a recovering market in the last quarter of 2006:
- Builders have been cutting production
- New home sales have bottomed out
- Home price declines are attracting buyers
- We are moving towards a sustainable sales pace
- Existing/new home inventories are falling
- Mortgage applications are stabilizing
- Mortgage rates have begun to decline
- Stabilizing pending home sales
- The months supply has topped out
Some economists predict that the downturn that started in third quarter of 2006 will last 12 to 24 months. However, different economists, different opinions. Just keep your eye on the market statistics and you’ll continue to have a feel for the market.
In 2006, we expect to see an 8% growth in the number of Realtors and yet transactions declined by 8%. This has the Realtors scrambling for business and in some areas there can be 20 agents vying for business for one house sale. This requires the agents to work harder, be better positioned, and it makes it more important than ever to figure out how to differentiate yourself in the market. Unfortunately, some agents don’t get it, and because of the amount of home appreciation, too many agents are still able to squeak by and are lured by the “value of the commission” of just one home sale.
The market has had the third year in a row of record sales, the opportunities are there if you’re looking for them. By having great market knowledge and having effective marketing you can clearly stand out from the rest.
The mortgage industry has continued to look for creative ways to get more buyers into the homes of their dreams. However, with the continual increase of the medium home prices, many consumers are trying to figure out how to get into a house. More and more people are forced into renting. For many ARMS were the answer. As interest rates have increased, those ARM users are finding themselves unable to make their mortgage payments and according to ReaaltyTrac’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report they have increased by 25% in 2006 over 2005 with Colorado, Georgia and Texas posting the highest quarterly foreclosure rates.
When investors started to see the interest rise, inventories increase, and a saturation of investors in certain areas, the savvy investor pulled future investments from real estate back into the stock market. The result was a surge in the stock market.
There are many opportunities in this market for someone who keeps up on the market trends, finds creative ways to help their clients that won’t hurt them in the future, and does consistent, targeted marketing. Stay focused on what’s possible in the market and you will always succeed. Responsiveness, market knowledge, sales skills, and likeability are more important now than ever.
In closing
The more educated the consumers becomes, the more power they process, and the more demanding they are becoming.
The industry has experienced these challenges before, but combined with the change in technology and changing consumer demands, we can expect to see some changes in the industry as a whole. Because of technology, the internet, opening up of the MLS, and corporate America’s involvement, we’re about to see a shift effecting agent’s skills sets and composition. Agents that are willing to make changes, get educated, and acquire the necessary skills will be the winners.
The key to keeping up is to embrace change because it is going to happen whether you like it or not. Stay on top of what is impacting this market, be willing to adapt new strategies, take advantage of the technologies that will simplify your business, and think about how you can do business with your clients for life.
How are you responding to these changes? What actions do you need to take right now to take advantage of them?
by Debra Pestrak